flashforwardfandomcom-20200223-history
User blog:Sabarte/The Black Swan - (Long)
A book published in 2007 by Nassim Taleb is entitled The Black Swan. The premise of the book, which is now referred to as The Black Swan Theory, is that our culture is negatively impacted by "our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations." He argues that, particularly in the realms of science, politics, and economics, we rely too much on inductive reasoning and the presumed predictability of future events on the basis of past ones. We thus fail to expect, or prepare for, the unexpected. The title derives from the fact that prior to the discovery of the black swan in 1790, Western society had believed that all swans are white. A related concept, in the realm of philosophy, is referred to as the Black Swan Problem. It too involves a critique of inductive methodology to arrive at so called “universal” laws or principles. Karl Popper, one of the leading philosophers of science of the 20th century, wrote extensively on the subject and used the black swan as an exemplar for it. The idea is that, from repeated observation of white swans over the course of centuries, we had accepted the truth of the proposition that “all swans are white.” According to Popper, however, that proposition cannot be accepted as true until every swan in the world has been observed to be white. And the proposition can be, and was, disproved by the discovery of the black swan. While, the discovery of the black swan thus “falsifies” the truth of the proposition that “all swans are white,” it at the same time establishes the truth of the proposition that “not all swans are white.” From this “falsification” basis, Popper proposed that the goal of science should be the successive rejection of falsified theories, and their replacement by theories that can account for the phenomena that falsified the prior theory. Another aspect of Popper’s work is even more relevant to FlashForward. He was an early and ardent proponent of the theory that “mind” is a separate physical substance. In his work in this area, Popper collaborated with John Eccles in addressing the issue of free will versus determinism. Eccles, who had done extensive research into the subject of brain chemistry, had developed the concept that the brain contains “critically poised neurons” that can be influenced by “possibilities brought forward to the brain” to make choices that effect future events. In other words, a vision of a possible future can influence the operation of the brain in making choices that will affect the actual future. In 1977, Popper and Eccles co-authored a book entitled “''The Self and Its Brain.''” which expounded upon these theories. In addition to his work with Popper, Eccles’ neurophysical research is also of relevance to FlashForward. He won the Nobel Prize in 1963 for his discoveries regarding the functioning of the synapses between neuron cells by which the human nervous system operates. His research led to the eventual conclusion that electrical stimulation of the brain did not directly affect synaptic activity. Rather, it brought about changes in the production of the hormones and chemicals through which synaptic activity takes place. Thus, the current could produce effects that lasted beyond the period of time it was being applied. His research was instrumental in identifying the chemical compound Acetylcholine and its role as a neurotransmitter in the portions of the brain responsible for memory. Popper was also a social activist who, consistent with his rejection of reliance on inductive reasoning in the realm of science, also critiqued “historicism.” In Popper’s view, this doctrine, which holds that history develops inevitably towards a determinate end according to knowable general laws, is the underpinning for all authoritarian and totalitarian forms of government. Category:Blog posts